http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/11/opinion/sunday/friedman-pass-the-books-hold-the-oil.html?_r=2&ref=thomaslfriedman
我很喜歡這篇文章的開頭:
"
EVERY so often someone asks me: “What’s your favorite country, other than your own?”
I’ve always had the same answer: Taiwan. “Taiwan? Why Taiwan?” people ask.
Very simple: Because Taiwan is a barren rock in a typhoon-laden sea with no natural resources to live off of — it even has to import sand and gravel from China for construction — yet it has the fourth-largest financial reserves in the world. Because rather than digging in the ground and mining whatever comes up, Taiwan has mined its 23 million people, their talent, energy and intelligence — men and women. I always tell my friends in Taiwan: “You’re the luckiest people in the world. How did you get so lucky? You have no oil, no iron ore, no forests, no diamonds, no gold, just a few small deposits of coal and natural gas — and because of that you developed the habits and culture of honing your people’s skills, which turns out to be the most valuable and only truly renewable resource in the world today. How did you get so lucky?”
That, at least, was my gut instinct. But now we have proof.
"
-- THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
寫世界是平的作者Friedman確實是個作家
簡短的開場白讓人對文章馬上產生了興趣
內文中闡述沒有天然資源(石油)的台灣,是一個如此幸運的國家
正因為我們沒有石油林木鋼鐵或鑽石,因此我們發展出一種文化與習性
習於從這島上的人身上提煉出更高度的技能,而這正是最有價值且能夠再生的資源.
Friedman舉出,研究顯示一個國家的石油採集量與高中成績(知識)的負相關性
看到這你應該馬上先懷疑這樣解讀與研究方法的正確性,
畢竟相關性correlation不代表兩者之間有任何因過關係
另外,好在他文中也提到經濟學家早熟知這樣的"現象"
在經濟學中稱之為resource curse或是更精確的定義下稱之為"Dutch disease"的現象
此現象描述一個國家因為資源豐沛導致貨幣過於強勢(->打壓國內產業,不利出口)
長期下來非天然資源的產業發展不起來,而政府也多高度依賴來自天然資源的稅收使薪資近一步提高
降低其他產業生產成本與競爭力.
經濟學詳盡的分析其實才賦予Friedman所說的石油與知識負相關這樣的證據更充分的支持.
文章結論在於點出知識與技能的重要性:
"
By, contrast, says Schleicher, “in countries with little in the way of natural resources — Finland, Singapore or Japan — education has strong outcomes and a high status, at least in part because the public at large has understood that the country must live by its knowledge and skills and that these depend on the quality of education. ... Every parent and child in these countries knows that skills will decide the life chances of the child and nothing else is going to rescue them, so they build a whole culture and education system around it.”
Or as my Indian-American friend K. R. Sridhar, the founder of the Silicon Valley fuel-cell company Bloom Energy, likes to say, “When you don’t have resources, you become resourceful.”
"
因為知識與技能才是21世紀的國際貨幣
=======================
文章寫的很好,想要表達的重點也好
不過我還是得說,高中基本能力是否能作為未來國力的表現直得存疑
在這個知識經濟的時代,死背強記似乎沒能讓台灣養出太多具有創新能力的人
因此我們老是在追著別人闖出來的成功路子在後頭找剩餘的利基養活島上的人
我們的制度也時常讓我們放棄從更高的角度去看事情
從更根本的問題上去改善以達到整體效率的提升
而不是老在process improvement上做local optimization.
如果能把最佳化的能力使在更重要的環節上,是不是能讓更多人過舒適一點的生活
我們不榨取天然資源,是因為我們什麼都沒有
是福也是禍
因為我們什麼都沒有,所以企業把勞動力當作唯一可以榨取更多利潤的工具
高競爭力便宜的產品建築在便宜的勞工上
辛苦工作的台灣人真的有Friedman說的這麼幸運嗎?
最後,引述Schleicher說的
把知識與技能形容為國際貨這點,我想也是非常可怕的
如果貨幣會受到供給過多(印太多鈔票,通膨)而變的一文不值
難道知識與技能不會嗎?
要不是台灣印度這些國家每年產出這麼多"好用"的工程師
台灣工程師的薪水怎麼會比其他國家工程師低這麼多呢?
在許多國家,工程師這類辛苦的職業已經沒有什麼人要唸
在供不應求的情況下就變的值錢啦!
我說,那隻看不見的手
無所不在啊.
=======================
ps. 才疏學淺的我竟然不認識Friedman,
見文章的照片第一眼覺得跟Bernanke真像!
特別是鼻子與嘴巴 ;)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke
你說是不?
沒有留言:
張貼留言